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Decommissioning Thermal Power Plants in India Evaluating New Industry Segment & Estimating USD 5 Billion Opportunity
the coal requirement in order to continue generation for such plants increases by huge quantum which means the cost of operations being on rise consistently and the return is limited. This means dismantling such power plants and utilizing the same land area for creating fresh capacities by utilizing super critical/ultra-super critical technology would make more sense in order to support less polluting thermal generation with better efficiencies. Facilitating decommissioning services requires in depth acumen which is quintessential to firstly dismantle the thermal power plants and secondly utilizing the defunct units scrap to obtain the salvage value. This in itself will open up a new industry segment in the country which demands better understanding of the opportunities involved and a yard stick to measure them on both , integrated basis as well as on bifurcated terms across for each state.
By 2020 enincon believes that thermal power is destined to roll back into generation mix of the country and in all possibilities fresh UMPPs which have hit a road block may witness announcements sooner than later. Hence, preparedness for OEMs shall be of pinnacle importance which will be discovered through an in-depth research in this dossier. Queries like what be the region wise business case for BoP players, opportunity in terms of replacing the old thermal units, futuristic market size for BoP package wise OEMs and many more apart from the mentioned will find answers in this collective and holistic market research.
Since falling PLFs of thermal power plants in the current scenario raise a serious concern over maintaining the power demand-supply equilibrium of the country, especially addressing peak power requirements. There exists a strong business case for the renewable energy sources (RES) in India. For clearing all the myths and presenting a clear picture of what would be the likely fate of all renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biomass and small hydro) in India, enincon consulting llp attempts to come up with a research study on the future outlook of non-conventional sector in India and associated opportunity tune for the related value chain players.
With fresh order due to come only from CPSUs or the respective SEBs, the opportunity stands limited for the key value chain players. Following this scenario, modernizing the infrastructure, presence huge opportunity even if we consider 11 GW out of 40 GW of capacity. However, challenges are intermittent like land area availability and inclusive R&R implications , the capex in modernization , potential fuel supply security and obviously the power off take.
As, the dynamics of Indian power generation sector is shifting at large towards green power hydro inadvertently qualifies for a preferred source of generation courtesy withdrawal of fringe benefits offered to other major peaking power solution i.e. gas based generation. In this milieu, there are many queries which evolve to seek a resolute like what is the business case for hydro power and what Opportunites does it offer for EPC contractor, OEMs and last but not the least the power distribution utilities. Similarly, what quantum India should generate from small hydro and what mix of opportunities does these power plants offer amidst the potential for sustainable capex, queries like this and many more finds an answer from this dossier
With power distribution reforms gained momentum soon after the application of EA 2003 (where it was believed to be coined in mid 90’s) , Indian power distribution utilities came along way since then. With, introduction of reforms and multiple cognitive steps undoubtedly the power distribution sector stands improved by leaps from the erstwhile levels. Having said that, it indeed still represents the weakest link of the power generation, transmission and distribution chain. With, India having most of the discoms run as state authorities the pedigree for operational efficiencies and achievement of targeted revenue remains a seldom site. Barring Gujarat and few discoms of southern states the degree of AT&C loss levels decline over the past decade remains elusive. For sure, states like Rajasthan , Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have depicted remarkable improvement but still owing to the large area of operations and the consumer handled thereof consistently tests the revenue cycle for the utilities.
Determining business case for the domestic & international OEMs , tracking degree of competition & way out for sustenance
India’s current installed capacity of 315 GW has still a fair share of thermal power plants based on coal which accounts for sufficing the base load of the country. Although, India is cognitive of the global trend of gradually wishing away with polluting source of coal based electricity generation , but completely stripping of these capacities shall not be possible for one of the fastest growing economies of the world. Given, the estimate even if we consider India to grow by a normative 7% as an economy, the need of growth in infrastructural development shall also be of the same order. Hence, despite country’s Paris commitment to reduce carbon influx, India has to be dependent on coal till 2030 for meeting of its consistent base load .
Consumer & Distribution Utility Wise Comprehensive Track
Against the background of many positive changes in power sector, this dossier attempts to make a few analytical observations that are relevant for the states, their regulators and other stake holders
State Wise Opportunity Track for Solar, Wind, Other Renewable Energy & Thermal Energy Developers, State Transmission Utilities, Private Transmission Utility, Corporates and Bulk Consumers
Some trivial and yet complex questions associate with open access mechanism which needs to addressed through a pan India study which should prove to be a path finding guide for the project developers as well buyers to felicitate the same. The pinnacle interest for the developers is to learn about as to why only renewable players are reaping benefits of direct power purchase agreements and why not the thermal power producers under independent and captive category enjoy the same? Queries like these and many more demanded an in-depth research to unearth the very reason as to why essentially open access is fast gaining popularity in India, which transformed into the research base for the report for enincon consulting llp.
Indian power sector has undergone numerous policy changes over the years. The policy landscape in India has progressively evolved since independence but a radical change in the power sector of the country vis-à-vis competition, private sector involvement and investments was witnessed post 1991. Till early 1990’s the power sector in India was shielded away from any kind of involvement from the private sector. However the mounting pressure on government resources to support capacity additions , repeated delays encountered by the state utilities and growing demand-supply gap urged the government of India to open the power generation sector to private participation along with country’s globalization policy. Since then private players have put in continuous efforts to raise power generation portfolio of the country
India’s Power Transmission networks constitute the vital arteries of the entire power value chain. It goes without saying that the growth of power sector is contingent to development of a robust and a non collapsible transmission network. Over the past decades, the total power capacity has witnessed commendable growth, with more than 300 GW of generation capacity currently installed in India.
Country Wise Track of Forthcoming Oil & Gas Projects, Thermal Power Plant Projects, Power Transmission Projects, Wind Power Projects, Solar Power Projects, Transportation and Logistics Projects
India is on the verge to witness a major transformation not only in terms of its social stature but in economic repute too. With correct measures taken into the right directions, India seems moving forward to take a centrifugal position in many areas of international affairs. Energy and infrastructure development is one such avenue in India that has already created its own space on the international podium and is gaining limelight from many of the global repute companies, courtesy which the Indian energy & infrastructure segment is anticipated to become a US Dollar Trillion market by FY’ 2020-21.